San Diego Real Estate Market in the Last 38 Months

This year so far compared to last has seen more activity in the real estate market for San Diego. The following charts show the seasonal lows for sold homes in January and February, but when compared to 2011 there is a noticeable increase. There is talk of another wave of foreclosures coming on the national level but don't expect much in San Diego as San Diego lead the real estate boom and its eventual crash.

The following charts show data of sold homes in San Diego County over the last 38 months with the exception of the first chart, which is the monthly average of the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate। Even though this information is historical it does provide some indication of the direction the real estate market is going and its potential.

To keep it simple I broke down the data into price ranges and tracked the “price per square foot” on a month-to-month basis.

Several things to note when looking at the charts: 1) There are insufficient sold homes in the higher price ranges to provide meaningful results without critiquing the information more. 2) The Federal First Time Buyer credit expired November 2009 but was extended to June 2010.

Double click on a graph to make it bigger.

http://www.877homes.com/

Buyers’ Market vs. Sellers’ Market – 4th Qtr 2011

This is a look at the San Diego market for the last three months of 2011, which helps buyers and seller to know what type of real estate market we are in by using the absorption rate.

Absorption rate is used to determine the supply vs. demand of real estate. It is calculated by dividing the amount of inventory by how many properties are selling in a month.

1 to 4 months supply of homes is a Sellers’ Market
5 to 6 months supply of homes is a Normal Market
7 or more months supply of homes is a Buyers’ Market

The real estate market we are in today is not an ideal market to calculate the absorption rate because of short sales. When an offer is submitted to a bank on a short sale it typically takes 60 to 90 days to hear back and during this time the listing agent usually puts the property into a status of Contingency, which removes it from the actively supply count. In this state the property is not actively being sold neither is it in escrow. The following data is a look at the San Diego County real estate market as of January 1, 2012. First we look at San Diego County by geographic regions then break down the numbers by price.

All of San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 8873
Contingent homes: 3565
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 2663
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.3
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.7

North San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 3729
Contingent homes: 1135
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 975
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.8
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.0

Central San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 2366
Contingent homes: 877
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 781
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.0
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.2

South San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 1296
Contingent homes: 1005
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 521
Absorption rate of active homes: 2.5
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.4

East San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 926
Contingent homes: 444
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 296
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.1
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.6


Up to $200,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 1713
Contingent homes: 1206
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 623
Absorption rate of active homes: 2.7
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.7

$200,001 to $400,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 3161
Contingent homes: 1827
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 1273
Absorption rate of active homes: 2.5
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 3.9

$400,001 to $600,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 1623
Contingent homes: 452
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 478
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.4
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.3

$600,001 to $1,000,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 1349
Contingent homes: 171
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 251
Absorption rate of active homes: 5.4
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 6.1

$1,000,001 to $1,500,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 520
Contingent homes: 24
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 64
Absorption rate of active homes: 8.1
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 8.5

$1,500,001 to $5,000,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 635
Contingent homes: 22
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 46
Absorption rate of active homes: 13.8
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 14.3

$5,000,001 plus Homes
Active homes for sale: 121
Contingent homes: 1
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 3
Absorption rate of active homes: 40.3
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 40.6

Note: Small towns and communities far from the major populated areas were not used in
the breakdown calculations of the county, which is why their sum does not add up to San Diego County as a whole.

The San Diego County for the last nine months has moved in the direction of a sellers market. This happened in the 2nd quarter because more homes were being sold but in the 3rd quarter it is because there are fewer homes on the market and this trend has continued into the 4th quarter. In fact there are 3564 fewer homes being sold today compared to six months ago. A more and more frequent buyer these days is the All Cash buyer. These buyers are going after the less expensive homes making it tough for buyers who need a loan to compete.

The following reasons to get into the market are the same as last
quarter with one addition.
- Historically low interest still (for every $1000 borrowed the monthly payment
- will be about $6.50)
- Cost of renting is going up
- Depressed prices
- All Cash buyers are investors and they typically invest wisely

If you want to know the absorption rate of a particular area
contact us at homes877@yahoo.com

Visit us at www.877homes.com

Buyers’ Market vs. Sellers’ Market – 3rd Qtr 2011

In December of 2009 I wrote a blog that took a look at the San Diego market so buyers and sellers would have a better idea on how to handle a purchase or a sell. The data gathered at that time was only useful for a short period of time because the real estate market is continuously changing. Since then I calculate this data once a quarter.

To learn how this information can be used visit my December 2009 blog “Buyers’ Market vs. Sellers’ Market”.

Absorption rate is used to determine the supply vs. demand of real estate. It is calculated by dividing the amount of inventory by how many properties are selling in a month.

1 to 4 months supply of homes is a Sellers’ Market
5 to 6 months supply of homes is a Normal Market
7 or more months supply of homes is a Buyers’ Market

The real estate market we are in today is not an ideal market to calculate the absorption rate because of short sales. When an offer is submitted to a bank on a short sale it typically takes 60 to 90 days to hear back and during this time the listing agent usually puts the property into a status of Contingency, which removes it from the actively supply count. In this state the property is not actively being sold neither is it in escrow. The following data is a look at the San Diego County real estate market as of October 1, 2011. First we look at San Diego County by geographic regions then break down the numbers by price.

All of San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 11,141
Contingent homes: 3714
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 2841
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.9
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.2

North San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 4784
Contingent homes: 1143
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 1057
Absorption rate of active homes: 4.5
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.6

Central San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 3096
Contingent homes: 978
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 843
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.7
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.8

South San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 1502
Contingent homes: 1040
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 537
Absorption rate of active homes: 2.8
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.7

East San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 1112
Contingent homes: 448
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 315
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.5
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.0


Up to $200,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 1987
Contingent homes: 1234
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 644
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.1
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.0

$200,001 to $400,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 3864
Contingent homes: 1885
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 1298
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.0
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.4

$400,001 to $600,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 2167
Contingent homes: 481
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 525
Absorption rate of active homes: 4.1
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.0

$600,001 to $1,000,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 1806
Contingent homes: 174
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 318
Absorption rate of active homes: 5.7
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 6.2

$1,000,001 to $1,500,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 687
Contingent homes: 28
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 83
Absorption rate of active homes: 8.1
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 8.6

$1,500,001 to $5,000,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 819
Contingent homes: 27
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 62
Absorption rate of active homes: 13.2
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 13.6

$5,000,001 plus Homes
Active homes for sale: 147
Contingent homes: 3
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 2
Absorption rate of active homes: 74
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 75

Note: Small towns and communities far from the major populated areas were not used in the breakdown calculations of the county, which is why their sum does not add up to San Diego County as a whole.

The San Diego County for the last six months has moved in the direction of a sellers market. This happened in the 2nd quarter because more homes were being sold but in the 3rd quarter it is because there are fewer homes on the market. In fact there are 1296 fewer homes being sold today compared to three months ago. A more and more frequent buyer these days is the All Cash buyer. These buyers are going after the less expensive homes making it tough for buyers who need a loan to compete.


The following reasons to get into the market are the same as last quarter with one addition.
Historically low interest still (for every $1000 borrowed the monthly payment will be about $6.50)
Cost of renting is going up
Depressed prices
All Cash buyers are investors and they typically invest wisely

If you want to know the absorption rate of a particular area contact us at homes877@yahoo.com

Visit us at www.877homes.com

San Diego Real Estate Market in the Last 36 Months

With everything going on in the economy I understand why people are hesitant to take the plunge into real estate but do not forget to keep an eye on interest rates.

The following charts show data of sold homes in San Diego County over the last 36 months with the exception of the first chart, which is the monthly average of the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate. Even though this information is historical it does provide some indication of the direction the real estate market is going.

To keep it simple I broke down the data into price ranges and tracked the “price per square foot” on a month-to-month basis.

Several things to note when looking at the charts:
1) There are insufficient sold homes in the higher price ranges to provide meaningful results without critiquing the information more.
2) The Federal First Time Buyer credit expired November 2009 but was extended to June 2010.
3) In the last 36 months the US stock market lowest point was in February 2009.

CLICK on a chart to make it larger.

Ben Altman
Tidal Realty
(610) 890-1063
www.877homes.com

Buyers' Market vs. Sellers' Market – 2nd Qtr 2011

In December of 2009 I wrote a blog that took a look at the San Diego market so buyers and sellers would have a better idea on how to handle a purchase or a sell. The data gathered at that time was only useful for a short period of time because the real estate market is continuously changing. Since then I calculate this data once a quarter.

To learn how this information can be used visit my December 2009 blog “Buyers’ Market vs. Sellers’ Market”.

Absorption rate is used to determine the supply vs. demand of real estate. It is calculated by dividing the amount of inventory by how many properties are selling in a month.

1 to 4 months supply of homes is a Sellers’ Market
5 to 6 months supply of homes is a Normal Market
7 or more months supply of homes is a Buyers’ Market

The real estate market we are in today is not an ideal market to calculate the absorption rate because of short sales. When an offer is submitted to a bank on a short sale it typically takes 60 to 90 days to hear back and during this time the listing agent usually puts the property into a status of Contingency, which removes it from the actively supply count. In this state the property is not actively being sold neither is it in escrow. The following data is a look at the San Diego County real estate market as of July 1, 2011. First we look at San Diego County by geographic regions then break down the numbers by price.

All of San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 12,437
Contingent homes: 3771
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 2953
Absorption rate of active homes: 4.2
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.2

North San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 5191
Contingent homes: 1199
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 1117
Absorption rate of active homes: 4.6
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.7

Central San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 3610
Contingent homes: 992
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 858
Absorption rate of active homes: 4.2
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.3

South San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 1630
Contingent homes: 1040
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 547
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.0
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.9

East San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 1289
Contingent homes: 444
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 323
Absorption rate of active homes: 4.0
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.4


Up to $200,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 2084
Contingent homes: 1253
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 659
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.2
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.1

$200,001 to $400,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 4309
Contingent homes: 1917
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 1335
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.2
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.7

$400,001 to $600,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 2460
Contingent homes: 497
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 575
Absorption rate of active homes: 4.3
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.1

$600,001 to $1,000,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 2112
Contingent homes: 191
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 315
Absorption rate of active homes: 6.7
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 7.3

$1,000,001 to $1,500,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 818
Contingent homes: 32
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 98
Absorption rate of active homes: 8.3
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 8.7

$1,500,001 to $5,000,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 932
Contingent homes: 26
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 69
Absorption rate of active homes: 13.5
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 13.9

$5,000,001 plus Homes
Active homes for sale: 150
Contingent homes: 1
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 2
Absorption rate of active homes: 75
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 76

Note: Small towns and communities far from the major populated areas were not used in the breakdown calculations of the county, which is why their sum does not add up to San Diego County as a whole.

The two previous quarters San Diego County was in a Normal market but the 2nd quarter of 2011 the market has become a sellers’ market. Even though there are about 300 more homes on the market than there was three months ago about 600 more homes are being sold each month. A more and more frequent buyer these days is the All Cash buyer. These buyers are going after the less expensive homes making it tough for buyers who need a loan to compete.


The following reasons to get into the market are the same as last quarter with one addition.

Historically low interest still
Large inventory of homes
Cost of renting is going up
Depressed prices
(New) All Cash buyers are investors and they typically invest wisely

If you want to know the absorption rate of a particular area contact us at www.877homes.com

Rent vs. Buy

The most frequently asked question I receive is "Is it a good time to buy?" The second most common question I hear, which ties into the first one is "Is it better to rent or buy now?"

The answer to this question has two parts that should be considered; social and economic. To answer the social part one needs to ask themselves do you plan to move in the next several years because of work or family? If yes then would you sell or rent your home when you move?

Taking a look at the economic part of the answer one needs to know is it less expensive to own or to rent. If it is more expensive to own is pride of ownership worth the additional cost?

There are many costs and responsibilities with homeownership but there are also some tax deductions. A simple rule of thumb I use is to divide the cost of the home by what the monthly rent would be. If the number is less than 200 then it is better to buy and if the number is over 200 then it makes financial sense to rent. For example, a house sells for $500,000 but one can rent the house for $3000 a month ($500,000 / $3000 = 167) so it makes more sense to buy in this scenario.

Trulia.com has created a nice national map that evaluates the Rent vs. Buy question, click here.

If you still have questions don't hesitate to contact me.

Buyers’ Market vs. Sellers’ Market – 1st Qtr 2011

In December of 2009 I wrote a blog that took a look at the San Diego market so buyers and sellers would have a better idea on how to handle a purchase or a sell. The data gathered at that time was only useful for a short period of time because the real estate market is continuously changing. Since then I calculate this data once a quarter.

To learn how this information can be used visit my December 2009 blog “Buyers’ Market vs. Sellers’ Market”.

Absorption rate is used to determine the supply vs. demand of real estate. It is calculated by dividing the amount of inventory by how many properties are selling in a month.

1 to 4 months supply of homes is a Sellers’ Market
5 to 6 months supply of homes is a Normal Market
7 or more months supply of homes is a Buyers’ Market

The real estate market we are in today is not an ideal market to calculate the absorption rate because of short sales. When an offer is submitted to a bank on a short sale it typically takes 60 to 90 days to hear back and during this time the listing agent usually puts the property into a status of Contingency, which removes it from the actively supply count. In this state the property is not actively being sold neither is it in escrow. The following data is a look at the San Diego County real estate market as of April 1, 2011. First we look at San Diego County by geographic regions then break down the numbers by price.

All of San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 12,151
Contingent homes: 3701
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 2322
Absorption rate of active homes: 5.2
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 6.8

North San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 4893
Contingent homes: 1142
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 831
Absorption rate of active homes: 5.9
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 7.3

Central San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 3540
Contingent homes: 947
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 677
Absorption rate of active homes: 5.2
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 6.6

South San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 1736
Contingent homes: 1045
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 472
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.7
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.9

East San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 1276
Contingent homes: 476
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 254
Absorption rate of active homes: 5.0
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 6.9


Up to $200,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 2186
Contingent homes: 1208
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 598
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.7
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.7

$200,001 to $400,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 4315
Contingent homes: 1884
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 1039
Absorption rate of active homes: 4.2
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 6.0

$400,001 to $600,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 2369
Contingent homes: 490
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 441
Absorption rate of active homes: 5.4
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 6.5

$600,001 to $1,000,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 1950
Contingent homes: 192
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 238
Absorption rate of active homes: 8.2
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 9.0

$1,000,001 to $1,500,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 725
Contingent homes: 34
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 62
Absorption rate of active homes: 11.7
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 12.2

$1,500,001 to $5,000,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 896
Contingent homes: 25
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 47
Absorption rate of active homes: 19.1
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 19.6

$5,000,001 plus Homes
Active homes for sale: 126
Contingent homes: 0
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 2
Absorption rate of active homes: 63
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 63

Note: Small towns and communities far from the major populated areas were not used in the breakdown calculations of the county, which is why their sum does not add up to San Diego County as a whole.
It is easy to see that San Diego County is in a normal market for the majority of the categories, which has been the trend for about the last nine months. There is a noticeable increase in activity in North County from more homes on the market to more homes being sold. More comes are on the market for the high-end priced homes while more of the low-end priced homes are selling.

There are many distressed homes but the banks are not in a position to recognize the losses on their books as they will become insolvent. Expect a constant and continual flow of distressed homes coming onto the market for the next several years.

Here are reasons to start getting serious about buying.
Historically low interest still
Large inventory of homes
Cost of renting is going up
Depressed prices

If you want to know the absorption rate of a particular area do not hesitate to contact me.

Visit us at www.877homes.com