This is a look at the San Diego market for the last three months of 2011, which helps buyers and seller to know what type of real estate market we are in by using the absorption rate.
Absorption rate is used to determine the supply vs. demand of real estate. It is calculated by dividing the amount of inventory by how many properties are selling in a month.
1 to 4 months supply of homes is a Sellers’ Market
5 to 6 months supply of homes is a Normal Market
7 or more months supply of homes is a Buyers’ Market
The real estate market we are in today is not an ideal market to calculate the absorption rate because of short sales. When an offer is submitted to a bank on a short sale it typically takes 60 to 90 days to hear back and during this time the listing agent usually puts the property into a status of Contingency, which removes it from the actively supply count. In this state the property is not actively being sold neither is it in escrow. The following data is a look at the San Diego County real estate market as of January 1, 2012. First we look at San Diego County by geographic regions then break down the numbers by price.
All of San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 8873
Contingent homes: 3565
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 2663
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.3
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.7
North San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 3729
Contingent homes: 1135
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 975
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.8
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 5.0
Central San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 2366
Contingent homes: 877
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 781
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.0
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.2
South San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 1296
Contingent homes: 1005
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 521
Absorption rate of active homes: 2.5
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.4
East San Diego County
Active homes for sale: 926
Contingent homes: 444
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 296
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.1
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.6
Up to $200,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 1713
Contingent homes: 1206
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 623
Absorption rate of active homes: 2.7
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.7
$200,001 to $400,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 3161
Contingent homes: 1827
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 1273
Absorption rate of active homes: 2.5
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 3.9
$400,001 to $600,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 1623
Contingent homes: 452
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 478
Absorption rate of active homes: 3.4
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 4.3
$600,001 to $1,000,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 1349
Contingent homes: 171
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 251
Absorption rate of active homes: 5.4
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 6.1
$1,000,001 to $1,500,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 520
Contingent homes: 24
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 64
Absorption rate of active homes: 8.1
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 8.5
$1,500,001 to $5,000,000 Homes
Active homes for sale: 635
Contingent homes: 22
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 46
Absorption rate of active homes: 13.8
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 14.3
$5,000,001 plus Homes
Active homes for sale: 121
Contingent homes: 1
Sold homes per month over the last three months: 3
Absorption rate of active homes: 40.3
Absorption rate of active and contingent homes: 40.6
Note: Small towns and communities far from the major populated areas were not used in
the breakdown calculations of the county, which is why their sum does not add up to San Diego County as a whole.
The San Diego County for the last nine months has moved in the direction of a sellers market. This happened in the 2nd quarter because more homes were being sold but in the 3rd quarter it is because there are fewer homes on the market and this trend has continued into the 4th quarter. In fact there are 3564 fewer homes being sold today compared to six months ago. A more and more frequent buyer these days is the All Cash buyer. These buyers are going after the less expensive homes making it tough for buyers who need a loan to compete.
The following reasons to get into the market are the same as last
quarter with one addition.
- Historically low interest still (for every $1000 borrowed the monthly payment
- will be about $6.50)
- Cost of renting is going up
- Depressed prices
- All Cash buyers are investors and they typically invest wisely
If you want to know the absorption rate of a particular area
contact us at homes877@yahoo.com
Visit us at www.877homes.com
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
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